prior/odds

№ 003 · CURRICULUM VITAE · 2026

Elvis Liu.

Risk, forecasting, and the tools to do better.

Summarya CV is a density

Internal-audit background moving into risk and forecasting. Day job is logic-driven, data-driven, intelligence-led audit over live-streaming, creator-economy, minor-protection, and growth-incentive surfaces — turning 'process compliance' walkthroughs into mechanism design. Outside the desk I build small self-hosted systems for the workflows I actually use: a cross-platform intelligence pipeline, an AI workspace, a working notebook, ledger automation. Prediction markets and calibration are the lens for everything else. The value of audit, to me, isn't the amount recovered after the fact — it's holding the compliance-and-business lifeline through systematic control and early warning.

this CV · Beta(5, 3)

A point estimate is a lossy summary. So is a CV — read it as a density, not a hard line.

Experience1 role
2025-06 — present

Internal Audit (campus hire)

Major short-video & live-streaming platform

  • Live-streaming guild allowlist audit — value-traced the mentor–apprentice allowlist back to its original intent and showed it had been weaponised as a fee-arbitrage construct (a single 'mentor' fronting 100+ apprentices); closed two high-risk allowlists across access / approval / removal stages and drove a rewrite of onboarding & offboarding rules, plugging material fund leakage.
  • Game-streaming content-center audit — built a multi-dimensional creator-value model (ROI / ACU / ARPPU / paying-rate) that replaced subjective 'creator-potential' arguments, separating genuinely-premium creators from inflated ones and surfacing a substantial book of low-yield signings.
  • Minor-user protection audit — paired an external-signal radar with internal red-team product attacks; entering through 'accounts producing revenue without ever going live', surfaced a hidden guest-cohost gifting flow reaching a large population of minor accounts, then reproduced and patched timezone-bypass curfew, guest-cohost bypass, and AIGC unsafe-content induction at the product level.
  • Growth-incentive audit — end-to-end attack-surface mapping over the live campaign portfolio found 100+ campaign types able to bypass risk control via allowlist exemption; combining session-duration, modified-client fingerprints, and per-user ROI attributed large-scale fraudulent payouts, and UID-to-payout clustering surfaced withdrawal exposure and merchant–black-market collusion.
Education2 entries
2022-09 — 2025-06

Beijing Foreign Studies University

M.S. Accounting · International Business School

GPA 3.61 / 4.0 (top 5%); minor in Latin; tier-3 scholarship.

2015-09 — 2019-06

Shanghai Maritime University

B.A. International Accounting + B.A. Law (double degree)

GPA 3.4 / 4.0 (top 5%); minor in English; tier-2 scholarship.

Engineering6 builds · shipped or running

Open-source Windows/macOS tray app: one glance shows remaining subscription quota on Claude Code, Codex CLI, Grok CLI, and DeepSeek balance — the tray icon itself is the readout, one bar per provider, backed by a flyout panel of ring gauges, burn-rate ETAs, and 7-day usage charts. Reads local CLI sign-ins, never writes them. MIT, CI-built releases for both platforms.

RustTauri v2GitHub Actions
priorodds-brain 2026

Personal cross-platform intelligence pipeline. Ingests social feeds, long-form posts, and overseas forums; embeds them; exposes a semantic-search API — 'follow one thread, retrieve the whole conversation across sources.' Engineering crystallisation of the external-signal radar I use in audit work.

PythonQwen3 embeddings (DashScope)Vector DBHetzner
priorodds-agent 2026

Research thread (notes on /notebook) on applying LLM agents to automated audit: the 'locate the issue → generate SQL → regression-verify' loop, auto-organising workpapers, attributing anomalous accounts, and data-asset inventory. Goal: hand the repetitive work to the agent, keep the judgement for people.

LLM agentsSWE-benchSQLPrompt / Tool templates

This site. A probability-first identity — animated prior→posterior hero, a WebGL probability field, and a calibration orrery — over a fast, server-rendered editorial notebook.

Astro 5TailwindWebGLCloudflare Pages

Self-hosted multi-tenant AI workspace. Open WebUI front end, code-server IDE, and an Anthropic-compatible relay so one subscription powers every internal service. Runs on a single Hetzner CPX22; friend tenant on an isolated key prefix.

Open WebUIcode-serversub2api relayDocker ComposeHetzner

Discord → Beancount personal-finance bot. Send a line like "咖啡 35" in chat; an LLM parses it into a valid beancount entry, bean-check validates, the bot commits to a private GitHub repo, and a Fava web UI renders the books in real time.

PythonBeancountDiscordFavaFly.io
Skillstools · domains · life

Programming

PythonSQL / MySQL / HiveTypeScriptRMATLABStataBash

Audit & analytics

TableauUiPath (RPA)WiresharkLogic-driven anomaly miningMulti-dim cohortingRed/blue product attacks

Web

AstroTailwindWebGLWordPressCloudflare PagesCloudflare Access

Infra

Docker ComposeHetznerFly.ioCoolifyTraefik

AI tooling

Claude APIOpen WebUIEmbeddings + vector searchMCPClaude Code

Domain

Internal auditRiskPrediction marketsForecasting & calibrationBeancount

Certifications & exams

CPA China (3/6 papers passed)PRC Legal Profession QualificationLSAT 164 (top 25%)Fund Practitioner QualificationNCRE Level 2CIPP/E + CISSP (in progress)

Spoken languages

English (CET-6 / TEM-4)Japanese (elementary)Latin (reading)

Outside the desk

Running (10K PB 1:10)Rainbow Six Siege Asia Championship — runner-upDota 2Reading
Honors5 entries
ReachI reply to most