№ 001 · PRIOR/ODDS · 2026
Prior odds, posterior work.
I'm Elvis Liu — recovering internal auditor → risk & forecasting. I build small self-hosted systems and treat prediction markets as the lens for everything. The point is calibration, not certainty.
№ 003 · POSTERIOR · THE WORK
A track record,
orbiting.
Every claim is a probability that moved. hover a node.
open the notebook →Featured priorsprior → posterior · 7d
- PM:RATE-Q3 Fed cut by Q3 0.42→0.55 +0.13
- PM:CLAUDE-5 Anthropic ships Claude 5 EOY 0.62→0.71 +0.09
- PM:AGI-EOY Frontier lab claims AGI EOY 0.18→0.12 -0.06
- PM:ELEC-26 US 2026 incumbent party retains 0.54→0.61 +0.07
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